IRouletteIron and steel network news: the overall trend of iron ore prices in April showed a strong shock operation, with a rhythm of falling first and then rising, and the forward price index was stronger than the port spot. As of April 26, 62% Australian forward price index of iron ore 118Roulette.5 US dollars / dry ton, up 21.17% from March. The price of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 882 yuan / ton, up 16.51% from the previous month. The current price difference of iron ore period narrowed significantly, and the spot import profits of various varieties narrowed slightly during the month.

In terms of price trends, in the first ten days of April, the improvement of the macro environment boosted market confidence, the relevant terminal demand stimulus policies appeared frequently, the demand for finished products improved, the speculative demand of traders at the industrial level and the rigid demand replenishment of steel mills increased, and the price of black rose slightly. In the middle and late ten days, liquidity at the macro level continued to be released, while finished products maintained a good speed of removing storage, the pressure on steel mills was alleviated, and the overall enthusiasm for resuming production was improved. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises maintained an upward channel, and iron ore prices rose further.

Looking forward to May, China's iron ore supply and demand side may show a pattern of weak supply and strong demand. On the supply side, due to the decline in shipments in April, the average daily arrival volume in May is expected to decline compared with April. On the demand side, from the results of the future shutdown and re-production of the sample steel mills surveyed by Mysteel, the resumption of blast furnace production in May may maintain the strong situation in April, and the hot metal output is expected to have a significant increase compared with April, but at the same time, attention should be paid to the possibility of profit contraction of steel mills in the future and the replacement between scrap iron, which may disrupt the plan of blast furnace resumption. In terms of port inventory, due to the contraction in the supply side and the increase in the demand side, the gap between supply and demand has narrowed, and the port inventory is expected to fall from 147 million tons to about 144 million tons.

In terms of price trend, it is expected that the overall trend of imported mineral prices in May will rise first and then suppress, in which the performance of terminal demand may be the key factor to determine the inflection point of mineral prices. The positive feedback in the first half of the market may continue to promote the rise in mineral prices, with the increase in production and the decline in demand during the off-season, the resistance to the rise in steel prices may increase, and the rise in raw material prices will compress the profit space of steel mills. At that time, the market or by suppressing the price of raw materials to re-adjust the supply and demand of upstream and downstream, or gradually from positive feedback to negative feedback logic.

one

Price: black series price shock is strong in April.

April black department price shock operation is strong. In early April, the improvement of the macro environment boosted market confidence, "promoting large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in implementation plan", "documents issued by the Ministry of Housing to support the renewal and phase-out of use for more than 10 years, construction machinery and equipment" and other terminal demand stimulus policies frequently, the demand for finished materials has improved, the speculative demand of traders at the industrial level and the rigid demand of steel mills have increased, and black prices have increased slightly. In the middle and late ten days, liquidity at the macro level continued to be released. The Ministry of Finance said at a news conference of the State Information Office that according to the distribution of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds should be started in time, and the finished products would be removed at a good speed. The pressure on steel mills has been alleviated, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises has maintained an upward channel, and iron ore prices have further risen.

So far, the 62 per cent Australian powder index is US $118.5 / dry ton, up 21.17 per cent month-on-month, while the price of rebar in Shanghai is 3640 yuan / ton, up 4 per cent month-on-month. In terms of steel mill profits, iron ore prices continue to rise and superimpose coke for many rounds, and steel mill profits have dropped obviously. up to now, Hebei rebar's spot gross profit is 30 yuan / ton, narrowing monthly ratio by 154 yuan / ton.

In terms of iron ore futures, the contract basis of April 09 has obviously narrowed. Up to now, the contract basis of PB powder-09 is-3, the month-on-month ratio is 20%, and the narrowing range is 114%. In terms of import profits, the spot import profits of various varieties have narrowed slightly in April. Take PB powder as an example, up to now, the spot import profit of PB powder is-25 yuan / ton, and the month-on-month ratio is 24 yuan / ton.

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Fundamentals: the fundamentals of China's iron ore are shown as the narrowing of inventory accumulation in the strong ports of supply and demand.

Comments on iron ore fundamentals this week: in April, China's iron ore fundamentals showed a situation of strong supply and demand. On the supply side, the global average daily iron ore shipments showed a seasonal decline, while the average daily arrival volume increased slightly compared with March, and the two were significantly stronger than the same period last year. On the demand side, blast furnace hot metal output rebounded significantly in April, due to the accelerated removal of total inventory and a sharp rise in steel mills' profit margin in the month, so the enthusiasm of most steel mills to resume production was enhanced. The inventory of steel mills continued the trend of accumulation in April. From the change of the overall inventory structure, the inventory of steel mills and ports increased in April, while the overall fluctuation of Haipiao inventory was small. In terms of port inventory, as the current number of ships in Hong Kong is at a high level in the past five years, the high-pressure port promotes the port unloading rhythm. Although the port output has rebounded compared with last month, the quantity is still lower than the unloading volume. As a result, the port inventory maintains the accumulation trend, but the accumulation range has narrowed.

From the perspective of market behavior, with the increase in the number of blast furnaces resuming production and the May Day holiday at the end of the month, the replenishment intensity and pick-up pace of steel mills at the port end have improved compared with the previous month. As spot import profits basically showed a shrinking trend in April, the performance-to-price ratio of RMB port spot compared with US dollar goods is prominent, and the purchasing focus of steel mills is more inclined to the port end. The average daily trading volume of port spot in April was 1 million tons, an increase of 25%.

2.1 Iron ore supply: global iron ore shipments are weakening on a daily basis, while China's iron ore arrivals in Hong Kong are rising month-on-month.

Iron ore arrival volume: the absolute value of the arrival volume of 45 ports decreased in April compared with the previous month. It is expected that the amount of 45 MTR ore arriving in China in April will be 99.64 million tons, a decrease of 1.636 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 9.272 million tons over the same period last year; and an average daily arrival of 3.321 million tons in April, an increase of 54000 tons. After the revision of the discharge of 45 ports from January to March 2024, the incoming volume of 45 MTR ore to Hong Kong in China was 292.38 million tons, an increase of 27.4 million tons or 10.3% over the same period last year. According to the previous shipments and seasonal projections, the average daily arrival volume in May is lower than that in April.

　　铁矿石发运量：4月份全球铁矿石发运总量环比出现季节性下降，预计4月份全球铁矿石发运量为12548万吨，月环比减少1082万吨，同比去年同期增加617万吨，处于近三年同期偏高位置；日均发运418.3万吨，月环比减少21.4万吨。根据季节性规律看，2023年5月份日均发运量419.6万吨，环比增加21.9万吨；2022年5月份日均发运量423.1万吨，环比增加15.4万吨；2021年5月日均发运量425.7万吨，环比增加7.9万吨；预计今年5月份全球发运总量达1.34亿吨，日均值为432.5万吨，环比增加14.2万吨，同比增加12.9万吨。

　　2.2铁矿石需求：4月钢厂生产节奏大幅提升 铁水产量重回上升通道

　　铁水产量：4月份预计Mysteel247家样本钢厂铁水产量总量环比减少60万吨至6813万吨，日均铁水产量环比上升5.4万吨/天至227.1万吨/天，增幅2.3%。具体到区域来看，4月除东北和华东地区有减量外，其余统计区域均有不同程度的增量，其中华北区域增量最为明显。月内高炉复产节奏明显加快，前期亏损以及成材高库存的局面在月内有所改善，进入4月后五大材表需维持在高位水平，Mysteel统计的4月钢铁行业PMI生产指数环比3月上升，年内首次超过50%，表明当前钢厂生产局势整体向好，钢厂厂内五大材总库存加速去库。随着钢厂库存压力逐步释放，带动了上游高炉生产积极性。此外由于4月大多数钢厂使用的是低成本原料，因此全国钢厂的盈利状况表现出明显的改善，截止最新一期全国钢厂盈利率为50.65%环比3月底上升了22.08%。

　　从市场行为方面来看，随着高炉复产数量的增加，同时月底恰逢五一节假，钢厂在港口端的补货力度以及提货节奏相较上月有所提升。由于4月即期进口利润基本表现出收缩的趋势，人民币港口现货相较于美元货来说性价比凸显，钢厂采购重心更偏向于港口端，4月港口现货日均成交量为100万吨，增幅达到25%。

　　2.3铁矿石库存：4月中国45港铁矿石库存延续累库趋势

　　4月中国45港铁矿石库存整体延续了去年10月中旬至今的累库趋势，累库幅度较3月有所缩窄。截至4月26日，45港铁矿石库存总量14759.1万吨，较3月底高327.9万吨，比今年年初库存高2514.4万吨，比去年同期库存高1872万吨。4月45港铁矿石库存表现为累库趋势，因在港船只数量处于近5年偏高水平，压港量对港口库存形成补充，疏港量环比上月有所回升，但仍低于卸货入库量，45港库存持续累库，节奏上有所放缓。

　　短期来看，供应端，5月铁矿石发运量预计同环比均表现为增加；综合前期发运、海漂库存及到港比例来看，45港日均到港量预计表现为环比下降。需求端，5月份部分钢厂高炉计划复产，日均铁水产量环比有所回升。综合来看，5月总供给有所减少，而总需求增加，供需差将会收窄，港口库存预计小幅去库。

　　三

　　下周展望

　　平衡表推演：展望5月份，中国铁矿石供需面或将表现为供弱需强的格局。从供应端方面来看，受4月发运量回落的影响，5月日均到港量环比4月预计有所下降；需求端方面，从Mysteel调研样本钢厂进行未来停复产摸排的结果来看，5月高炉复产或将维持4月偏强的局面，铁水产量相较4月预计会有明显的增量，但同时需要注意未来钢厂利润收缩的可能性以及废铁之间的替代，可能会造成高炉复产计划被打乱。综合到港口库存方面，供给端表现收缩，而需求端增加，供需差收窄，港口库存预计从1.47亿吨下降至1.44亿吨左右。

　　价格走势方面，预计5月进口矿价格整体走势或将表现为先扬后抑，其中终端需求的表现或将是决定矿价拐点的关键因素。5月前半程由于上游高炉维持加速复产，虽然原料成本将会继续抬升，但也一定程度上会推动钢价上涨，终端需求短期内维持韧性，市场将会延续正反馈的行情，矿价因此保持上涨趋势。而进入到月内后半程的时候，由于上游加速生产后导致成材产量明显增加，成材终端需求的消化能力相对可能会减弱，成材去库速度将逐步放缓，市场开始交易累库的预期。钢材价格上涨阻力或将增大，原料价格的上涨将压缩钢厂利润空间，届时市场或通过打压原料端价格来重新调节上下游的供需，行情或逐步从正反馈过度到负反馈的逻辑。另外5月市场对于宏观消息面可能也将进行短期的交易，重点关注月初美联储议息会议、中旬中美物价指数与中国零售数据以及月下旬的中国LPR。